The path to the White House: 2 months to go

This article was first published in the On the Trail 2024 newsletter
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Hello, friends. We’re less than two days away from Election Day, and days away from the first — and possibly only — debate.
60 days till showtime
We’re officially on the homestretch. Today’s newsletter is dedicated to mapping out the next 60 days, between now and Election Day: what you need to know, what to watch, and why any of this matters.
A lot to cover. Here we go:
Timeline. Voting gets underway, in one state, today: North Carolina will begin shipping out its mail-in ballots this morning. For our Utah readers, ballots will be shipped between Oct. 15 and 29. In Arizona, they’ll be mailed Oct. 9; in Nevada, on Oct. 16. Ballots for military personnel and overseas absentee voters will be shipped by Sept. 21, regardless of state. You can find more details on your state’s vote-by-mail process by visiting the website for your secretary of state or lieutenant governor.
In-person early voting, meanwhile, kicks off soon: in Pennsylvania, polls open in 10 days, on Sept. 16. Out West — in Arizona, Nevada and Utah — early voting does not begin until October. Axios compiled a helpful, interactive grid laying out those dates here.
Between now and Election Day, there are a number of big events, starting with Tuesday’s debate in Philadelphia (Sept. 10). It will be the first time Harris and Trump meet in person, ever. The vice presidential candidates — Sen. JD Vance and Gov. Tim Walz — will meet for a debate in New York City on Oct. 1. A date for a second Harris and Trump debate has not yet been announced.
In the midst of it all, Trump is set to be sentenced in his hush money trail on Sept. 18, a decision that could affect whether Trump is able to vote in the election. But thus far, Trump’s convictions have had little consequence among voters, as he’s stayed stable in polls amid his legal challenges.
That takes us to …
Poll pulse: President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out instantly reshaped the race. Trump held a lead over Biden in polls for months; almost overnight, Harris took the lead, and she has slowly increased her cushion, according to poll averages: FiveThirtyEight (Harris +3), The Economist (Harris +3), RealClearPolling (Harris +2).
What changed? For one, Harris’ favorability: as soon as Harris became the Democratic nominee, Americans decided that they liked her better. Just a week before Biden dropped out, Harris’ favorability ratings were under water: 54% of Americans said they had an unfavorable view of her, compared to just 37% who had a favorable view (a net unfavorable rating of +17). Now, she’s at a net neutral: 46.7% have an unfavorable view, while 46.4% have a favorable view.
Somehow, Harris has managed to convince voters to separate their views on her from their views of the Biden-Harris administration. In a Deseret News/HarrisX national poll last month, only 27% of U.S. voters said the country is on the right track, compared to 62% who say it is on the wrong track. (That tracks with other current polling.) Those numbers have improved since Biden dropped out — when he was atop the ticket, nearly 70% of Americans said the country was on the wrong track — but “lots of people have lost the presidency” with the wrong-track rating the Biden-Harris team now has, said Bill McInturff, co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies, during AEI’s Election Watch panel Wednesday.
“The structural forces are not good for an incumbent vice president in the Democratic Party,” McInturff said.
States to watch: For Harris to win, she doesn’t need to convince every American that the country is on the right track — she just needs enough voters in enough swing states to think so. Prognosticators have long held that the election will boil down to seven states: the Sun Belt battlegrounds, including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina; and the Blue Wall, including Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The chief among these is Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes, more than any other swing state. There, the polling is neck-and-neck: Harris currently leads by one-half of a percentage point, according to the Financial Times’ polling average.
But don’t count out the Western states. A candidate has won the presidency without winning Nevada only once since 2000 (Trump in 2016), and both Nevada and Arizona saw razor-thin margins in 2020. Both have large populations of religious conservatives — a key bloc of swing voters.
Both of those Western states, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, have tight U.S. Senate races that could drive turnout — and determine which party controls Congress.
Key issues: If polls are any indication, voters are honed in on three main issues: the economy, immigration and abortion. Both Harris and Trump have given more attention to the economy than any other policy issue in recent weeks, but Trump’s flip-flopping on abortion and Harris’ on the border will provide fodder for the opposing campaign. What’s more, abortion measures will be on the ballot in ten states this November, including Arizona and Nevada, and an immigration-related measure will be on the ballot in Arizona.
Do ideas matter anymore? That’s at the heart of this Oren Cass column, who chastises both Harris and Trump for failing to engage in “salient policy debates,” instead staking out milquetoast positions (or switching positions) on everything from the economy to clean energy to abortion. Cass, the brains behind Romney’s 2012 domestic policy, argues that the candidates are spending too much time convincing voters they are “on their side,” and not enough time explaining what, exactly, that side is. The problem with empty US campaign promises (Oren Cass, Financial Times)
RFK Jr.’s Trump endorsement was a big boon for MAGA — if, for no other reason, it consolidates support from Kennedy voters in tight swing states. But in three battlegrounds — Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin — Kennedy will still be on the ballot. Will that matter? It depends on how close the race is. RFK Jr. is stuck on 3 swing-state ballots. That’s a headache for Trump. (Aaron Blake, The Washington Post)
While in line at Chipotle in Chicago last month, a middle-aged man asked me who I’d be voting for. (I was en route to the DNC, and he’d seen my credential.) I asked him, and he said Trump. “I can’t vote for a woman,” he told me. “Look at Hillary. America’s not ready.” Will Saletan attended over 20 focus groups with voters across the country to find out how common this sentiment is. Are American voters, in the aggregate, sexist? If Harris loses, will it be because of her gender? Is America Ready to Elect a Female President? (Will Saletan, The Bulwark)
BONUS: At the heart of the American democratic ideal is the peaceful transfer of power. This short essay draws from the lessons taught by some of my political heroes, Washington and Adams, and one of my religious ones, Joseph Smith. History and the peaceful transfer of power (Paul Reeve, Deseret)
See you on the trail.
Editor’s Note: The Deseret News is committed to covering issues of substance in the 2024 presidential race from its unique perspective and editorial values. Our team of political reporters will bring you in-depth coverage of the most relevant news and information to help you make an informed decision. Find our complete coverage of the election here.